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20121201
20121231
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with stefan pedrazzi about whether he believes there are any reasons to be optimistic about greece. >>> and whether volatility triggered by uncertainty over the fiscal cliff should be hear to stay. the fiscal cliff seems to be here to stay, at least. house speaker john boehner has scrapped the deal on plan b. boehner conceded last night he didn't have enough support from republicans to pass the bill which would raise taxes on households making more than $1 is million a year. the house is now in recess until the end of the year. the white house says the president's main priority now is to ensure taxes goes go up for 98% of americans and 97% of small businesses. for more on the tax, we're joined. talk about the cliff. you wake up to the news this morning. what do you make of it? what do you do now? >> i guess what's happening is there is more idealogical battling going on in the republican party than maybe was obvious a little while ago. our baseline view is they will strike a deal either down to the wire or early next year. growth next year will be quite weak. it has to be said that
from becoming greece. no more borrowing without addressing why we're in debt to begin with. that's where the real chance for change occurs, at the debt ceiling debate. >> we're joined now by ralph sill voe. it's christmas eve. do you have some plans to do? >> it's an austerity christmas, actually. just a couple friends getting together and a couple of friends getting together and having a nice meal. >> it is not an austerity christmas. >> it actually is. we haven't had the greatest year. everything we hoped would happen. we thought this economy was going to turn around at the summer period. >> ralph, if you take a look at the stock market concerns, the dax is up 20%. >> there will be plenty of alcohol to forget. >> do you think we're going to manage to see some type of a resolution on the fiscal cliff? we're seeing a lot of finger pointing now and hearing from both sides saying it's in the other side's interest to delay these negotiations. >> i've had conversations with people in new york and working on trade floors. what i've been told by them is there is a huge number of meetin
to talk about greece or not, whether i want to dive straight into the banking union and what chance have we possibly got of getting agreement. >> let's talk about greece, much more fun. no, greece we have to get out of the way. is the debt by back program going to be successful, everyone nds it will. we know that's the one little lynchpin on which everything else rests. so if it's not, the money will not flow, but everybody insists as when he headed into the euro group meeting yesterday that it will be successful. that's also what what we hear from the greeks. there's a bit of arm fwising, but it will probably go through. and then lo and behold ahead of the actual summit in the morning, they can sign up the check for the next greek installment also we hope. we're also closer to a little rescue package for cypress. spanish aid package for the banks is on track. so that was the working list last night. another thing on the to-do list. the head of the euro group confirmed last night that, no, i will not extend anything now, i will definitely leave as head of the euro group at the end of thi
't get. see if you can do better. it wouldn't take much. >>> greece's national bank euro bank alfa and perez says they need the money following disclosures by the lenders last week. greece is concerned that the 50 billion euros set aside for bank recapitalization will be enough to cover the shortfall. >>> and the italian treasury is holding its last debt sale of the year. traders are expecting to see solid demand for the paper after rome placed nearly 12 billion euros of shorted dated paper just yesterday. still, they warn investors could become more discerning in the new year especially as the italian electric tore ral race on thursday. italy expects to raise around 10 billion euros next year. less supply. we know there's still plenty of investor demand and no sign necessarily of re-ignited concern about the longer term health of these -- you could call them peripheral economies. >> no. things have really improved. it's all still down to the ecb's pledge to support these countries if they fulfill the conditions. especially in the case of italy. the country is fulfilling conditions
. greece unveiling that $10 billion eurobond buyback. a 52-week high in france and germany. our road map this morning begins in washington where fiscal cliff negotiations according to the "times" has "collapsed." at least for now. with less than a month until the deadline, who blinks first if anyone? >> goldman takes dell from a strength to a buy. is it time to look at the stock and maybe even other players in the beat up personal computer sector? >> manufacturing data out of china. not bad. 50.6. that's the highest in seven months. although shanghai again trades lower even europe's pmi improves a touch in november. first up, we're one month away from the fiscal cliff and so far the white house and congressional republicans are still in disagreement over how to reduce the deficit and avoid a raft of tax hikes and spending cuts. yesterday our own jim cramer and maria bartiromo were on "meet the press" and cramer had a message for fellow panelists and father of the anti-tax pledge, grover norquist. >> most ceos are republican. they're on board. they're not on board with you. they're not on
the wires. we have quite a bit of support for the euro because of the s.a.p. upgrade on greece and the situation over there. we'll see also the way the market is reacting. let's have a quick look at what the dax is doing. it's been perky, up 0.15%. trading toward the 7,665 level. >> patricia, this comes at a time when people have been focusing on the strength of the euro. as we're over the 1.32 level you mentioned, certainly member countries would like to see a weaker currency. but as long as the surveys hold consistent with strength in the german economy, we're not likely to see that weakening. >> no. absolutely. and the more we get over the entire question will the euro break up or not, as long as that happens we will have some more support in the euro which is not bad if you think about the quantitative easing we've seen in the eurozone and also inflation. that could be the counterpart of the equation, that we still have money being pumped into the economies wheroe ouausterity is going on. we have a little pullback possibly going forward when it comes to the euro. then again
risk at the moment? we'll keep giving greece money because we can't afford not to. we're still waiting maybe for the ecb to step in. what is the till rask? anything we didn't know about? >> lots of things we don't know. that's the problem. it is the unknown unknown as they say. i think greece is probably too small to view. i think what really bothers me is spain which i think clearly bothers the whole market. the question, a growth going to fall off a cliff or whether it muddle through and a bailout will be sufficient. as you say, we don't know the answer to that question. that remains the tail risk. until we do get close to a resolution, i'm not going to turn massively bullish. >> what's your view on that? >> i think i go along very much with what he's saying. >> what is your view on what happens to spanish growth? >> i think spain has a lot of problems at the moment. it's not seeing a lot in the domestic market. not seeing it move toward an export. in which case spanish growth is going to be very, very weak for some time to come. >> all right. good to see you. thanks very much. alan
. there is no argument there as there wasn't for greece. we know the countries, italy, greece is in a crisis and it's a crisis due to lack of competitiveness. going back to the currency, under the currency they create a wave of all sorts of problems including inflation and i think it is not a good route. >> well, i do rather agree with paula on this one. the problem with the euro is it gives you easy and quick solutions. and we're going to keep developing your currency. as you go back to the old days where you keep lowering your currency and you pay relatively high rates on your debt. so the appeal of the euro in the beginning was, oh, chief debt. it looked like christmas. now we're discovering that that regime, a ten-year regime where many peripheral countries got hammered. only germany sort of really held it together. now we have to look at how to undo this. for countries who have no ambition about their future, then maybe the policy is the way to go. italy had so many things going for it that falling back, that seems almost -- >> how about the service in the g-7. >> italy is two countries. it's
reached on the banking up. it's integrity is good for the agreement and as we focus on greece today, conditions are in place to disburse the next tranche of aid to greece totalling 43 billion euros. >>> over to japan, voters are heading to the poll on sunday. the major indicators suggest a win for the opposition party. the local media says there is still a large pool of undecided japanese voters. kari enjoji has more on this report from tokyo. >> reporter: 12 parties, some less than a month ole are fielding 1,504 candidates. but instead of being slow for choice, voters say i just don't know. polls suggest the prime minister's democratic party is unraveling, hinting that many first-time politicians that swept the party to a victory three years ago could be wiped out. >> it's quite possible that the cpj will sink from neing first or second but possibly to even third parties in japanese politics. >> the dpj's handling of the fukushima disaster and undelivered economic promises have alien ated many voters. if the liberal democratic party wins, shinzo abi could with the newest restoratio
, greece, portugal are likely to stay in recession for the whole year, i would argue there's a high probability that italy will come out of recession towards the end of the second quarter. >> and that seems to be the real concern that is in the market today, whether the political upheaval, even the campaigning by berlusconi could undo some of that progress. >> i think the key point is will the reform programs that have been initiated by the monte government, will they stay intact? i think there's a reasonable chance, they've had a more than reasonable chance that that is the case. yes, it's not surprising, we have the sell off today. it's inest knowledge that as the campaigning builds up, investors will be nervous.. the move by investors back into italian bonds over the next few months, we could see some exits. but i think if we get a sensible election results, and i think we probably will, then the reform program will be intact and the new government will stick to the budget that is going to be passed in the next two weeks. >> maybe a buying opportunity there. i won't quite put the
that didn't have. greece does not have an exit. citigroup had a 90% chance earlier this year. the biggest day of this jurn year was june 17th when they elected a moderate who did not try to pull greece out. and germany stepped up and gave them some money and that september the 6th, that was the european central bank. so you had china, maria, the united states and greece. none of them went off the cliff. maria, this is for you. our little christmas present for you, maria. >> thank you. thank you. >> we want to remember, by the way, this is emblem attic of all these nice things you have said this week for the victims of the newtown connecticut tragedy. we love the way you all have been strong in support of them. >> thank you. i very much appreciate that. michael, let me ask you, what do you want to be avoiding in 2013? >> i think you have to look at it from the standpoint of extreme. it's clearly in the bond market. it's clearly in the love for dividends. it's clearly in the love for income versus capital appreciation, versus cycle kral. i call this the rocky balboa stock market. we've had
, but will be a couple points worse than greece and spain. so that's a big negative for george osbourne. another one will be getting the percentage of debt compared with gdp in the country, getting that down within a five-year period, getting it syncing in the right direction. he thought it was going to peek around 75%, 75%. it looks like it could go up even further. so let's see what he says on that front today. in terms of options, he has very few options indeed because this is a government which as we know has set its fallout on plan a. and yet, are we seeing real austerity? i'm not entirely sure. government borrowing this fiscal year so far in the five months that we have figures for already is 26.7% higher than the same period a year ago. the idea originally this year was for flat spending and then getting it down there after. and he's having to borrow more and more money, october figures were around 2.6 billion pounds more in borrowing than analysts expected. having to borrow more because tax receipts and corporations are falling. the labor party -- i was speaking to rachel reeves earlier on,
to the trading day. investors are waiting for the results of greece's bond buyback program occurs. joe has some of the big corporate news and this one is actually a global corporate story. >> hsbc. we're talking about paying $1.9 billion in the money lawnering lapses. a brirchb lender admitting to a breakdown of controls, in a statement announcing a deferred payment. yesterday standard chartered agreed to pay $27 million agreeing that it violates sanctions against iran and two other international companies. >> if you're an international bank and you prael without getting into this kind of trouble? >> no. >> can you actually operate without money laundering? >> i'm just saying, if you're going to be in business in all these types of markets, isn't this going to happen? >> aren't there sxwier countries that would be probably -- that it would stead if you don't want any business tale. >> was there a fascination in this country about whether you want to indict the whole institution or what happens systemically. >> is this your sequel? >> i was on the phone last night. one of the two publishers that
, portugal, certainly greece. so you have those economic woes. the euro is not going to thrive and it may survive thanks to the ecb, but you're not going to get that economy to thrive, and the fiscal union ask those are very slow going and though they may be moving quickly by european standards and i've been given the magnitude of the problem going very slowly. >> how should people be thinking about this? the average american, and they've been hearing about it for so long and they're not sure it will affect their pocketbook. do you think they will? >> and there's this incredible chance that greece will leave and the dominos will begin to fall. i think that's unluikely to happen as long as the ecb is willing to support that currency, but will it thrive? will those economies boom? i don't think so, i think it will be another year of recession and you will find individual opportunities and the stock picker's market and far as it's a strong growth, they're not there yet. >> thanks so much for joining us. good to see you tonight. >> you heard piers morgan talk about it with larry last week. af
of greece. greece is getting bailed out. and going on back and forth. will there be a deal by december 31st? i don't think so, but if a deal gets penned out by mid-january, we can look forward to focusing on earnings and get this fiscal cliff over with so we can see what's going on important in the world, and that's earnings. >> let me -- can i comment on that? >> yeah, sure. >> i want to comment on rick santelli's optimistic view that maybe there really is a deal in the offing. he has a point, you know. it's not over, you know, until it's over and these guys do sometimes come up with last-minute deals, but i want to be very clear. in order for that to happen john boehner basically has to agree that he's going to get a deal out of house with majority democrat votes, and i don't see why he does that before january 3rd. >> you're assuming the president has all the leverage, and i think the president would have a horrible legacy starting out with such turmoil, so i disagree. i think there's movement on the white house side on entitlements. >> rick, you do have to accept the fact that john boeh
the brink. greece got upgraded today. who would have thought it. that is what the market is looking at. saying okay. it is not going to be the worst kcase sharcenario, but you coul extend the middle class tax cuts and be done with it. it is in a recession. >> and i think the market would not like that very much. everybody is expecting that you get the middle class tax cuts done. >> and if you can get china and europe doing better. it is hard to be terribly bearish on the u.s. >> y are going to stay with our politico expert. this is a rally that has surprised experts. it hasn't been that easy to be optimistic. >> it is. i think you have to be cautious here. the probability that this could fall apart is very, very real. >> so, you have to be careful up at these levels as a trader. i have low exposure up here. i have protection. that is how you have to play this market. stay with us please. >> yesterday it looked like washington was inching towards a deal. but today, plan b could be signaling differences. we have karen b and sara fagan herself a former political director. i know what it m
the various government actions. look at wages in greece and now spain. wages in greece are down more than 25%. very painful, but we've heard about the pain already. what we haven't heard so much about is the competitiveness. >> enor husband costs with incredibly high unemployment rates. >> that i'm afraid is what's going on and that's extremely unpleasant. what i'm saying in terms of market action is we know about that, we're focused already on the unemployment, we're not focused on the wage improvement in competitiveness. >> all right giles, more to come from you you. also we'll hear from the stars of les mis about why the classic story will resonate with the current economic climate. and later in the program, we'll also hear from the nigerian finance minister about the resources boom. but you what about the corruption issue. and we'll also hear first from apple's new ceo tim cook about steve jobs' legacy and his future plans for the tech giant. plus of course we'll continue to keep you updated on the reaction and the latest dealings from the earthquake in japan. >>> a 7.3 magnitude earthqu
of a break-up, notably let by a greece exit were too high, higher than keeping greece in. >> and who were some of the past winners? what in your point of view is the most important criteria for picking person of the year? what is this supposed to represent? >> it's an important contribution to innovation. we've had receive jobs, for example, as person of the year. we earlier, five years ago, we had picked shawn claude trichet, the then president of the european central bank because he led the central bank response in 2001. so i think it's someone who has made a decisive, positive contribution to economic policy, public policy and that is probably why we wouldn't choose the north korean lead, who just let up a north korean missile this week. >> are there any regrets over choosing trichet now? >> i don't think so. he played an important role. we think mr. draghi has been somewhat bolder in his approach, notably through the money transactions which are designed to intervene in the bond market to reduce spreads where, in effect, speculators are betting on a break up of the eurozone, which is
rather than contraction. it's been since october of last year. also abroad greece announcing it will buy back bonds through a dutch auction. the set up whether allow athenss to assess the level of demand before setting a final bryce for the deal. part of the country's efforts to cut its about a along debt. and in germany, merkel is not ruling out the possibility of notifying greece some of its debt once athens finances are in better shape. angela merkel told a german tabloid that the question of the so-called haircut can be revisited. in the past, merkel's government had ruled out forgiving any debt. >> in corporate new, ubs is reportedly close to a settlement. the "new york times" says the swiss bank is expected to pay horn $450 million over claims that some of its employees submitted false libor rates. that's pretty huge story and we will take a look and ten to see what happens with this. also morgan stanley trader is under investigation by cme regulators over trades and treasury futures four years ago. at the time he was employed by goldman sachs. he's now head of global interest rate
the stand outout here is the euro. greece getting a five notch upgrade at the s&p. our road map this morning starts with gm. government motors no more. the treasury to exit its stake in the next 12 to 18 months, purchasing 2 million shares by the end of this month. >> another challenging quarter for fedex with the blame squarely on sandy. but the stock is up pre-market. >> oracle posts a strong quarter with even stronger guidance. the season rebound in europe. no impact from the fiscal cliff. >> and ge gets boosted from ubs's key call list on the weaker than expected macro environment. still on the list is including -- well tell you in a couple of minutes. >> general motors is up sharply in the pre-market session. the treasury department says it intends to sell the rest of its stakes in gm in the next 12 to 15 months. the automaker will buy back 200 million shares from treasury for $27.50 a share. treasury says it plans to sell its other remaining shares through various means in an orderly fashion. timothy masssad will join us later. this could be a buy signal with the government signaling i
of trying euro trend. >> that's fine. >> misery loves company. we can have it all forever, like greece. >> we're not greece. and that's the whole point. neither is britain which is pretending its greece, and look where it's getting them. britain's not growing at all. >> would you do some stimulus? >> i probably would, yeah. >> what kind? >> there's a ton of infrastructure that needs to be done in this country. >> then do it. and borrow money -- >> it's free. we can borrow money for free for 30 years in real terms. the market is not telling the u.s. to tighten fiscal policy. it's telling the u.s. to borrow some money. >> can you make sure we only do things -- we're not going to fill high speed rail lines between cities no one wants to travel to? >> if you spend a billion dollars i can't guarantee that every last cent of it is going to be spent properly. >> how moan solyndras will be in that balance? >> only two. >> you have to deal with the issues that krugman never deals with. i love the explanation we should spend spend spend. what happens when interest rates rise? two is you're talki
they agreed to give greece now within days 34 billion euros. they've done a deal where the ecb will regulate the biggest banks in europe and, importantly, the germans will be exempted, state run banks, savings banks. so the skeletons can stay in the german closet there as far as the banks are concerned. that was important for the germans. it is ironic in a year when so many people called for a breakup the european union this summit, poland actually said we'd like to start off applications to become the 18th member of the eurozone. that will play out during the course of next year. as far as the stock markets are concerned, today is relatively flat overall. no follow through from china which i mentioned earlier. i thought it was very interesting. here you go. >> the european markets are closing now. >> some are red. some are green. if you check the data you'll see we haven't really moved at all today. china was up 4%. shanghai was up 4% overnight. normally you would expect the australian miners, global miners listed in london to bounce on that. they didn't very much today. and that is partly
saying the world was going to end because greece was going to default and leave the euro. it's all over. europe's fine. just give it a break. that was last year's story. [ overlapping speakers ] >> europe is not fine. spain is in significantly worse position. they've taken on more debt into deteriorating economy. you tell me how that translates to this has all been fixed and this is all solved. it's not solved at all. [ overlapping speakers ] >> spain has about the same debt to gdp ratio as germany. that good enough for you? >> [ overlapping speakers ] >> hang on, fellows. let's not get hung up on spain. what i want to come back to is the usa. because our market has not collapsed, it's really different than it looks like it was back in 2011. i just want to ask, is it better to own those low-rate bonds right now? or jim la camp, i want you both to weigh in quickly. is it better to own corporate bonds or treasury bonds during this tiff over the fiscal cliff, or is it better to own stocks? real quick. >> well, short term we're going to have a lot of gyrations. but those yields are under th
the european markets are up for the year except portugal, which is up slightly. even greece is up year to date. i don't think you're too late on that trade at all. in fact, i think, quite frankly, the structural changes that are happening in europe could produce growth for many years come. >> where are you putting money to work, george? >> the fiscal cliff is sort of the uncertainty du jour. people are always worried about next uncertainty. you need to blow past that and think about where the next good stocks going to be, how can i invest, how can i participate? taxes are likely to go up, but this is a lot of rattling. both sides of the aisle would come together. they'll figure out what's best. at the end of the day, they know they have to help the little guy, the consumer. pool corp. sells everything but the water. they're suppliers for the pool industry. we think they'll grow at 18%. they have very little debt. it's like an annuity. all the pools in this country are seven years old. we love that kind of stock. >> bill, i take issue with the idea this is just saber rattling. if dividends trip
rumors out of greece. >> you guys hopeful on the floor that we get a deal sometime soon? >> you may not get a finalized deal but you'll get something done before the year end which will give us confidence to keep the market stabilized. >> members of the house tomorrow go home tomorrow for christmas. can you get a deal if they are home? >> i think you can. i think it's a little more di
yields have come down from 30, as you know, to 12.9%. they are below 13. way to go, greece. they have done very good so far. >> that's interesting, because europe has taken a back seat to many soft other issues. you still worried about europe? should that be part of our investment idea portfolio? >> as david said, that's improved dramatically, too, and it's really taken a back seat, so i would say, as david said, that some type of deal is priced into the market. >> let's do it this way. your single best idea to invest in, and then i'll get yours. >> financials, not necessarily the big banks but bank of new york melon. >> why? >> a processing bank, because it's the cheapest sector. a lot of momentum going for it right now. >> even the low rate that hurt their bottom line because it's tough to lend and borrow at such low rates. >> keep in mind, bank of new york melon, they are a processing bank so lending is not that big a deal to them. >> profit, production and personal income are the three things to watch, the three ps. >> what's your single best? >> our single best idea is apple comp
the lines of what spain did or ireland or greece, cut back our social programs dramatically. we'll have to do what the rest of europe will do over time, which is accept a lower standard of living forever everybody which is why the longer-term plan is so vital, not the short-term craziness. because everybody knows he we can't keep providing americans with the current level of services unless we raise taxes in a big way on erin and cut spending somehow. even the democrats are unwilling to consider that kind of tax cut. that's why long-term spending cuts are so important. they figure into the job creation of the next 25 to 30 years, and the ability of people to stay out of poverty longer term. in the meantime, you can't get the growth needed for government receipts to go higher even in the near term. put simply, if you got someone from honeywell or eaton or celgene in the rule, explain the impact. the imperative would be to get this fiscal cliff done before vacation. hey, listen, yes, no vacation without legislation. because the longer the delay the fewer reasons to start a business and th
that italy and greece would be following in disaster. of course, they subsequently turned out to be the single best places to invest for fixed income in the world. not only did the sky not fall, but you had to do some serious buying to keep up with the others around the world. we have been buying an etf for my travel trust. was there a more uniform agreement than the idea that the euro had to die and the weaker countries were going into a fre depression? we know a ton of countries that could do very well in a low-growth environment. a year ago all the wise guys were telling us to avoid china because it was a house of cards. the course only grew more uniform with the chinese market falling to multiyear lows. but in the last few weeks, china's economy bottomed during the summer as they were focused way too much on beating inflation. now it's become the best performer in the world, and i don't think you've missed the move which is why my trust has been buying an etf that mimics china. finally there's apple. we've become addicted to apple. we are deeply focused on its decline whic
. >> did you see the s&p upgraded greece today by six notches? i had to hit the machine to make sure that was the correct number there. >> well, you know, a lot of volatility in rate. >> bob pisani, what do you think today? a pretty good real under way? all about the fiscal cliff? >> well, the markets, is bullish because the markets are acting like 2013 will resolve a lot of problems so we've multi-month highs in the stock market. we have the safe haven, gold and bonds just getting hit badly again. i mean, bond yields are moving up. gold is moving down on a day when the dollar is -- is weak today, so the markets are sort of acting like things are actually going to resolve themself. even now, maria, you might notice, the headlines out this afternoon aren't bullish. markets believe a deal is coming quickly. >> so do you guys. you don't have any necessarily different guidance or expectation or reports than we do, and you both are very much in step that a deal gets done what. if it doesn't? >> i kind of think what's going on right now is a little dance. everybody has to appeal to their c
was supposed to vanish by this time with the secret sellers around the country. i thought greece was supposed to be kicked out of the union. instead, my advice, do what my charitable trust did today, buy european stocks. you know where else there's much more to come? yep, oh boy was this one a hated one coming into this year. yeah, you know what i'm talking about, china. how about that economy over there? after pausing because the government was busy whipping inflation, now, thank you, late gerald ford, now it's coming on strong. i think growth in china's accelera accelerating. the stock market might be the most undervalued in the world. the stock market entirely could be under valued. how many short sellers told you to do the opposite and sell that market? after the steam roller it's been of late, what exactly are the short sellers saying now? i don't know, i'm not hearing them clearly. i'm not listening. i'm not, no, i'm not hearing. europe and china both were supposed to slip into oblivion in 2012. that was the easiest story, everybody wrote it. turned out two fabulous places to invest. ho
this year were things that didn't happen. no greece exit, no china hard landing and no u.s. slipping into a recession. therefore, the market has been able to lift. >> the last thing that may not happen is the fiscal cliff resolution, too. that could throw an iron in the fire. we've all got to be mindful of the possible debt downgrade. moody's and fitch are still at aaa and they have been rumbling they might take us down, and i think if s&p goes down a notch, mandy, that's not good for the market. >> the fact that these predictions did not come true i guess show that making predictions -- >> it shows the value of strategists. >> okay. >> it shows the value of vat jists. >> what are you predicting for 2013? >> i think you have to watch things in europe. the big day is the september 11th elections in germany and germany could be harder after the election. in the first half is the sent ceiling discussion and finally profits, personal income and production, if those can do better than the markets can lift but right now the view is for a nothing market from here till year end. once the sea
't going pay its debts. we are going to be like greece. that was -- everybody -- both sides, by the way, republicans and democrats, both used the phrase default. you know perfectly well how it works in the government. you can make choices. >> i hate to break the news to you but -- i don't think anyone other than watching cnbc anyone actually cares and nobody believes the federal government will not pay social security or other debts. >> are you kidding me? i think they do. that's what they start with. right? start with the social security checks aren't going to go out. then -- what do people do, call their congressmen? the elderly get frightened. they think they won't have their weekly paychecks. >> this would not be the first time anyone from the executive branch tried to scare senior sit sense what do we do? we are going over the cliff. do you think we are going over cliff? >> i talked to the speaker's people today. bottom line is the speaker did remarkably smart. he didn't bring his bill up because he didn't have the votes and then sent every one of his members home so they could not
maybe, the worst is finally past, there's some hideous headline out of greece or portugal or spain or italy that the comes back with a vengeance and the s&p gets bashed down by a torrent of selling. that's why it's so important to prepare yourself and your stocks for the next catastrophe around the corner. expected or unexpected, so that you can make money in any market, or at least lose less and not just when things are going smoothly. you have to build this stuff into what i call your world view. you have to assume that somewhere, sometime, something will go wrong. i'm not saying you should be a super skeptic perma-bear, not at all. over the course of my 31-plus years in this business i've seen the averages climb way too way, watched the market make people way too much money to ever be that cynical and close-minded. being negative all the time has not historically been a lucrative strategy, and i don't see any reason why that should change now. there are a handful of incredibly smart, professional short sellers, hats off, able to turn pessimism into profits but i don't recommend
. 1.7%. all those predictions were -- >> they were playing ridiculously low rates in greece too. it's a dollar bubble. it's a treasury bond bubble. will it burst in 2013? maybe. it's going to burst eventually. it has to burst. >> peter, it's not a model. it's not a model to say something bad will happen eventually. >> your model about being a pollyanna and having your head in the sand -- >> it's not. >> how did you miss the financial crisis? >> i have no idea what you're talking about, peter. i have no idea what you're talking about. i was one of the first reporters to report on the housing and the mortgage crisis. i'll show you the clips. >> you were one of the guys laughing on me when i was report -- >> like a lot of what you say is ridiculous. >> guys, guys. [ overlapping speakers ] >> time-out. >> something bad will happen eventually, peter. >> time-out guys. i have a question for you peter. you're predicting currency crisis and significant depreciation of the u.s. dollar. what is the money going to? what is a good alternative currency? >> there is no good alternative. gold is t
towards greece and european decline. we all know and both parties recognize a resolution to medicare liabilities has to be part of a solution. >> give me one idea you would be ready to sign onto today that would significantly reduce medicare spending. >> we've already passed such a solution in the house. last year we passed legislation that would reform medicare. the budget paul ryan, chairman of the budget committee put forward, passed it to the house, senate hasn't passed a bunl in 1,000 days. we weren't able to get them engaged on that topic. that proposal able to bend the cost curve in medicare, put us toward the budget and preserve medicare exactly the way it is for current retirees. that's the balance you have to strike. that legislation struck a balance of 55 and above keeping medicare exactly the way it is and making changes for those in their 20s and 30s and 40s. most people i talk to in those groups understand we've got to reform medicare to save it and balance the federal budget. >> congressman, good luck to you. hopefully we'll see you on the other side of a deal. sue. >>
is the ism number weakened the market baltimore than the fiscal cliff propped up by greece. tech has not had a very good run recently. up today, dell got an upgrade at goldman. sharon talked about gold. it may be that gold has not done too bad this year but gold stocks are not outperforming. again today they are on the downside. this has been a year of buying gold, not so much buying gold stocks. really, you go back to 2004 when you could buy the gld for the first time, then you could suddenly have an alternative to owning gold stocks. before that, that was the only way you got the gold. >>> to the nasdaq now. seema mody is there folth big movers. >> we're flat on the day. one unusual mover, deckers outdoor is the maker of ugg boots. stern upgrading from buy to neutral citing new product offerings could help the company next year. the stock up 8%. apple also a bit higher by .6%. the company announced this morning thatle iphone phone will be available in south korea on december 7th with more than 50 additional countries being added in december including brazil, russia and taiwan. trying to ca
it was dubai and bp oil spill or greece or spain or the deleveraging or foreclosures. any of these things that we're supposed to take us out and yet we keep moving. i think the fiscal cliff is another one of these. >> let me ask you about the timing then. deutsche bank had a note out yesterday where they suggested that central banks have bought us a six months of time on the markets. if pmis do not improve, will we see growth? what would you say to that view? >> i mean, i'm pretty simple on this. i do not believe and we could debate this probably all day that quantitative easing itself has helped the economy at all. banks put that money right back to the fed as excess reserves. it hasn't boosted money in the economy. i don't believe that we've seen a false rally or sugar high. i think the growth in the economy and growth in the markets has been driven by productivity and profits. i think it's real. it's slow. it's real. we're going to have a weak fourth quarter. i believe most of that weakness is because of sandy. we're going to pick up later in the quarter. we'll have 2.5% to 3% growth n
heard it compared to the fiscal crisis in greece, 63% had heard it. in that number 36% had read a lot about it or heard a lot about it. do they believe a solution is likely? our numbers different from other poles. americans are more optic. first of all see what they think, unlikely 73% back in november when we asked about the debt program would there be an agreement, 73% saying that, now 44%. the number you want to think is 4% to 44% thinks a solution is likely. who thinks it's likely, that's interesting and driving this number. he can break it down by party. look at what we find, republicans 52-42, independents, i come back here, there we go, independents 47-32 and it's really what you see here 60% of democrats think it's unlikely. i just want to show you again when we get to the issue of 48% to 44% believing it's likely, it's mostly different by democrats. we it break it down further into what people expect, what kind of solutions work? think of this chart as the politician's guide to solving the fiscal cliff and remaining in office. the net percent acceptable minus the percent that
. that something has to be growth and i still don't see how europe has a plan for more growth. >> we know greece is done with because they've already restructured their debt and what they did in the last two weeks, which the germans said they should do, they should have done three years ago they'd be better off. spain is the immediate problem, you have 26% unemployment which is non-performing loans. >> we have to go, 2,200 pages of health care, i'm sure the notes spain's taken how greece has got money at every turn, their pile is a bigger pile than the health care plan. >> i could listen to you guys talk all day long. that was a great conversation. yra, rick, thanks so much. see you in a bit. >>> zynga stock popping. julia boorstin is live in l.a. with more. >> good morning to you, carl. this is the first of many steps before zynga can make money from online gambling. applying for a real money gaming license in nevada is a sign of zynga's seriousness creating new revenue streams. it sent it up as much as 9% higher today. the company warns it will take as much as a year and a half to get approval
at the currency and isolation. >> steven, stay there. selling 1.3 billion euros in three-month t-bills for greece. the bid to cover ratio, 1.73%. this allocation did include a 30% noncompetitive tranche. in other central bank news, it's been quite a busy day on that front. the central bank says use the repo rate holing at this level in the coming year warning the recovery is taking its toll on the economy. >>> and in australia, the rba eps's decision to lower rates appears to find a close one. central banks included keeping the rates on hold. still, policymakers were more concerned by more than expected slowdown in mining and investment. and japan's prime minister elect has told the country's central bank to consider adopt ago 2% inflation target. shinzo abe made the claim today. the bank is expected to cut borrowing costs at its rate setting meeting this week. steven, in light of all of this news, kind of goes back to the point that we were just making, that are a lot of central banks trying to use interest rates effectively as a way to depress the value of their currency even though we're seein
can be a bit less worried about greece next year than we can be this year, for example, as well as in spain the government is considering a variety of reform efforts. indeed, despite the exchange in governments we had this year, it's the french deposit. when we look at it in aggregate, i think the tailwinds are starting to overcome the headwinds. the headwinds are still going to be there. the fiscal one is very important. there are still going to be risks on the european side. there's still the geopolitics which, of course, we can't ignore here. but in aggregate, i think those tailwinds are starting to get more traction and that's particularly becoming true in the u.s. housing market. >> what's interesting to that point is that we're coming to a year where even some of those concern are going away. central banks are starting to get extraordinarily accommodative. i wonder if their measures haven't been too back end loaded. certainly when you look at japan, it has pursued cycles earlier and had more impact. what about the sense ta whether it's the fed, whether it's the bank of jap
there are two that we're watching for american investors. one is greece, one is italy. the developments today are both good from an american investing perspective because they keep a lid on what's happening in those two respects. in greece there was trouble on the streets of athens last night as a result of left-wing protesters and students out and police using tear gas to disperse them as they protested the death of a teenager as a result of a police shooting four years ago, but the more important thing from a market perspective is that in 30 minutes' time now, the book will close on the greek debt buyback. now, remember what's happening here. the greek government is borrowing 10 billion euros from the rest of europe to buy back its own debt at a discount. if it does that successfully, by midday our time when that book closes, then more cash will flow through from the rest of europe, possibly next week it will be able to repay its bills and capitalize on the banks. let's check the close. >> the european markets are closing now. >> so we kind of went nowhere today. a lot of these markets in e
than greece, more than spain. but conversely, china, if gdp is coming back, they are in what many consider to be a sweet spot. >> the numbers came out saturday for china. i think italy has been remarkably good. so this was a big game changer. italy had been a part of the good story of european recovery. now it's back. >> all to monti was never intended to be there for the long term. >> sure. >> in fact, he may be leaving a month earlier than originally planned. this should not be a surprise in the larger context. while we may mention berlusconi's name right now, he's not expected to win. >> look, we knew that monti was successful. >> it may be whoever follows him is going to roll some of the gains that he's had. so-called gains. >> that's going to cause ripples here. look, on saturday night, i said, we're going to have a nice opening. china's good, people know that monti is not really going to hurt italy. i think if china continues the momentum, but the number -- >> the ex sports were less than expected in the month of november. which is a concern. then there's this perverse glass
with greece. the buyback has gone through. they've raised over 31 million euros -- billion euros at face value. it would appear they had to pay more to get the debt off the u.s. hedge funds and the greek banks and everybody else. therefore they're short by about 450 million euros on their targets. eurozone conference call is about to start with the finance ministers to sort out exactly what they do. in general terms around europe today there is optimism. you'll see that in this close. europe shutting down. >> the european markets are closing now. >> remember yesterday and all that concern we had about where italy might go with the resignation of mario monti. greece is higher. por sh gal is higher. spain is higher. it's a good day for -- investor sentiment.strongly it was revealed today. optimism over what the fed is going to do in the united states tomorrow. optimism there will be a deal on the fiscal cliff. you have optimism that the recapitalization of the banks is going to be delayed by another year according to the bank of italy. and you have optimism as well on mar of election promises as
's who -- >> and pay everybody more money. >> they can buy stuff and go back on vacation in greece and all that stuff. >> do we count -- i'm getting -- there's nothing like this to get the twitterers going wild. 1-1-1 is -- 1-1-2001 -- >> 2001? >> yeah. >> yeah? >> 2101. >> yeah? >> less than -- >> you got a zero in there. >> less than 100 years. >> but it's 1-1-1 -- >> but 01 you'd write it probably. >> you would want to get to ten 10-10-10. 10-10-2110. i had someone call me dummy and say -- >> you? >> yeah. said it's 988 years. then he called me a dummy. i tweeted back to the guy, i'm the dummy? i'm the dummy? 988 years? i'm the dummy? the fed is meeting today -- i admit it, i resemble that remark. you're with me, pal. the fed is meeting to discuss whether operation twist will expire at the end of the month. and jerry webman is here. >> i showed up. >> chief economist. >> and union member. >> a unionyist. >> honorary union member. so is leaseman actually. maybe you can -- >> the president -- >> maybe -- you probably with -- >> workers fly i guess. we are strong, solid, more than
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